On the third day of my unit my students practiced making predictions. I started class by asking students to tell me what a prediction is. They have been making many predictions in science, so they were able to tell me that it is a guess about what might happen. I really wanted to emphasize to them that when we are making a prediction there is no right or wrong. I then asked them to tell me what would be good things to include in a prediction. As a class the students decided that they should explain why they think their prediction was going to happen and use evidence from the book to support their ideas.
We did popcorn reading and then it was time for the students to make their predictions. Some of the students really struggled and I heard from many of them that they could not make a prediction because they did not know what was going to happen next. Many of them seemed concerned about making an incorrect prediction. As a result I had quite a few students read ahead or look at the end of the book to find out what was going to happen.
You are working on a complex skill here that will take some time, and perhaps because this is a pretty sophisticated text, it is even harder for them. I think you pinpointed the issue--learning to explain their thinking and use the text as evidence. We, as adults, sometimes have challenges with that too!
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